Picking Winners

The Louisville Cardinals, 38-21. Lava Man by a length. John Yarmuth by two points.

That’s my view on how things will turn out this week in the city’s biggest, well, events. Attention to each of these results will be felt well beyond the city. Tonight, despite some cold temps, it’s going to be something for a national audience to see all those black shirts in the stadium, and I think the Cards are up to the task. But, I’d like to be in Rutgers shoes next week. Back to my days at Tennessee, the best time to play a nationally ranked power is the week after the biggest game of the year. In terms of media, a record 700-plus credentials have been issued. ESPN is pulling out all the stops. Former C-J columnist Pat Forde was interviewed last night, and there’s a pretty good feature on Chris Fowler of College Gameday in the C-J.

I’m not paying a whole lot of attention to the Breeders Cup, but I wish I were.  From talk radio, I gather that Bernardini could go off an even-money favorite in the Classic, so the smart money will be elsewhere.

Best TV of Wednesday night — Hands down the debate on WAVE-TV between Jack Conway and Jim Milliman. And guess what — asked to predict the outcomes of races on Tuesday, Conway picked all Dems, and Milliman had an opposite view.  My pick is Yarmuth in the 3rd District, but they may be my heart talking.

Yarmuth’s Page One Profile Paints Complex Picture

John Yarmuth’s campaign manager Jason Burke gave me a long list of complaints about the local paper’s coverage of the election last week. I’m not sure Burke will complain about the profile in today’s C-J, but it’s an interesting piece (by Andrew Wolfson) that paints a complex picture.

On one hand, we learn of Yarmuth’s priviledged background, of his lack of ambition for power, the way he doesn’t follow through in his life’s passions — except maybe for improving his golf game. Yet we also learn that he’s smart, compassionate and adamant about his political views. I want him to win, but in truth his resume reads like someone better suited to be a political operative or, gasp, a newspaper columnist, than a Congressman.

As a campaigner, Yarmuth’s laid-back approach leaves him open to accusations that he lacks passion, but in debates Yarmuth always comes out well thanks to a quick wit and his use of humor. At the Rotary debate I attended, it seemed that John’s body language exuded a confidence that Northup lacked. She, in fact, never looked at him and seemed to lose composure making some points. Maybe the question about Yarmuth isn’t whether he’s too liberal for Louisville, but whether he’s too smart for politics. After all, intellectuals aren’t exactly running the show in American politics or in the Third District.

I’ve heard more than once this political season that a stronger Democratic candidate, given the mood of the country, would have a comfortable lead in this race. Maybe someone like Andrew Horne would be in better position, because it’s not likely anyone would have worked harder on the campaign. Or Jack Conway, lurking as the party’s great local hopeful who gave Northup her greatest scare in 2002. If you haven’t seen him on WAVE-TV debating Republican Jim Milliman, you should.

All that said, I like Yarmuth’s chances next week. But it shouldn’t be this close.

Two tales on C-J Endorsements

Amy Shir had a friend who warned her that the Courier-Journal’s endorsement would be tough to get in her District 48 state House campaign, because her Republican opponent, Bob DeWeese, is friendly with the paper’s editorial board. She said she was told Jill Johnson Keeney, a member of the board, was close to DeWeese. Nonetheless, she did her homework and was well-prepared for her endorsement interview.

When she showed up and got off the elevator with DeWeese, she said CJ editorial director David Hawpe greeted DeWeese with great deference, actually bowing in a joking manner. The C-J endorsement went to DeWeese, but was written in a way that Shir thought was peculiar, especially this line: “On policy grounds, Mr. Shir would be our choice.” The C-J reasons that voters should choose DeWeese, in part because of the valuable contributions he makes to his party. That’s right, to his party.  I’m not sure that endorsement is based on solid reasoning, andthe C-J piece seems to be questioning its own choice.

On the other hand, sometimes the appearance of conflict among C-J editorial board members doesn’t mean there’s anything untoward going on. In a school board race, Pat O’Leary is running for re-election against Debbie Wesslund. O’Leary sent me a copy of an invitation to a Wesslund fund-raiser that was held at the home of a friend, Carolyn Gatz, who happens to be a former editorial board member and is married to Ed Bennett, who is there now. In fact, Bennett was involved in O’Leary’s endorsement interview.

But like other power couples in politics, I’m convinced that Gatz (who retains her name profesionally) and Bennett share many things, but keep their professional affairs separate. Gatz told me that her husband wasn’t home the night of the fund-raiser, and that beside the event raised just a few hundred bucks.

Now, if this situation occurred in a more high-profile race, it would have perhaps been a big story. But with the stakes so low, I believe Gatz when she says she was merely helping a close friend with her campaign, independent of her husband.

Of course, Wesslund got the C-J endorsement, but probably deserved it. O’Leary’s outspoken criticism of the school system’s policies and the actions of the superintendent have made him a divisive force on the board. I think the C-J’s decision was based on the candidate’s views and actions, and not on any influence resulting from Wesslund’s friendship.

The Courier has seen fit to support Democratic candidates Mike Weaver, Baron Hill, Ken Lucas and John Yarmuth in the area’s most contentious and talked-about Congressional races, remaining true to its heritage.  The choice of Yarmuth, however, was in doubt among insiders until it was released Sunday, especially since it backed Northup in 2004 and because of Yarmuth’s past rivalry with the C-J as a businessman and columnist. Read my column later this week in LEO to learn how the C-J has curiously been less than enthusiastic about its support of Yarmuth in its news coverage.

Posing Speaks More Than Words at Rotary Debate

Anne Northup and John Yarmuth have shared the same stage a lot in their campaign for the 3rd District seat in Congress. Today, they traded barbs and insults at the Galt House as guests of the Downtown Rotary Club. I doubt anyone in attendance changed their mind as a result of the candidate’s performances, and I guess that Northup would have carried this room in a landslide.

What I  noticed, though, was the candidates’ body language. The format was that each candidate spoke for two minutes, then relinquished the floor to the other. This went on for about 45 minutes. If you only heard, and didn’t see it, you’d have  noticed Northup’s voice rising in anger on several occasions, and that Yarmuth used humor and sarcasm a lot more. Each addressed the other directly.

When Northup spoke, Yarmuth turned his body toward her and seemed focused on what she was saying. When Yarmuth spoke, however, Northup stared straight ahead or down at her notes. I didn’t once see her acknowledge her opponent visually. Even when she was speaking, she never looked his way.

Meaningful? Perhaps not, but I got the impression that her anger is just below the surface, and that she knows she could lose.  It also seemed to me that when she spoke of her views on Iraq and terror, she knew it was a tactical risk and didn’t give it the emotional force that she reserved for topics like health care and the bridges.

She said it was time for a new quarterback, referring to her desire for Donald Rumsfeld to step down. It’s a new position for her, and she didn’t seem comfortable with the material. Yarmuth’s response was effective — saying that what needed to happen for the country was for George Bush to fire Rumsfeld and show some leadership.  Northup’s football analogy was suspect as well, as if getting rid of the guy running the show might solve all of the team’s problems. It goes a lot deeper than that. Ask the Dallas Cowboys.

3rd District Seeks New Lows, adds Media

The gloves are definitely off in the 3rd District Congressional Race between Decmocratic challenger John Yarmuth ande Republican incumbent Anne Northup. The only thing that can stop these two campaigns from coming to blows is, well, the election Nov. 7.

Northup’s campaign, determined to take attention away from issues by attacking Yarmuth, has latched on to this silly minimum wage debate over Yarmuth’s ownership of southern BBQ restaurants. After running an attack ad on the topic for a week, Northup updated the ad to include the labeling of a WHAS-TV report as wrong, and saying that WAVE-TV and the Courier-Journal had it right. Yarmuth topped that with an ad that included a portion of a WHAS-TV report, a move that infuriated WHAS-TV management.

Both sides are wrong here, but like our attraction to reality TV and professional wrestling, the public apparently can’t turn away. Yarmuth, who introduced Bill Clinton at a Dem rally Tuesday night, should be using his TV time to promote that relationship, not defending his opponent’s attacks on this intergrity.

Northup’s tactics, unfortunately, are tried and true. If she can paint Yarmuth as a hypocrite, voters leaning his way will either vote for her or stay away from the polls. That her logic — he’s a hypocrite because he advocates raising the minimum wage while getting rich from employing minimum wage workers at his restaurants — might work is disturbing. What about her stance on the issue — she’s still against raising the wage, and that’s the bottom-line issue.

Voters who consider the minimum wage issue important should be looking at both candidates’ stances on the issue, and they’re pretty well documented to be on opposite ends of the spectrum, and make their decision based on that. Northup’s ad, at best, distorts the truth about Yarmuth’s restaurant holdings, but at worst presents a false view and diverts attention away from a position she’s apparently not proud of holding.

Stereotyping Voters

I just completed an assignment for LEO in which I talked with folks from different parts of town. I found few surprises.viljennifer

I wasn’t surprised that Norman Simpson, an African-American who owns a business on West Broadway, knows a lot about political issues and knows exactly one Republican. I wasn’t surprised that 20-year-old Clint Cecil, working in a Chili’s in Hillview, credits his Baptist upbringing for stances against abortion and gay marriage. Nor was I surprised that Fern Creek single mom Linda Cobb was active in the Democratic Party and wanted an end to the war. And I could have done the piece on East End investment banker Tom Raque’s views without even talking to him.

But Jennifer Stevens surprised me. Working the bar at Harper’s on Hurstbourne Lane, she had real Democratic views on every issue. But to her, the election is not that big a deal, and she said she might not even vote. Of course, she is a blond, and a bartender, and the first political issue she mentioned was that she hoped John Yarmuth would be able to get the drinking age lowered. But she had some insightful thoughts as well, including a view that we need to get out of Iraq.

For someone who claimed she didn’t pay a whole lot of attention, she really knew a lot about what’s important.
I think what the Democratic Party needs to do to win, especially in the Yarmuth race, is to figure out how to get the Jennifers of the world into a voting booth.

Dems Rally at Union Hall

yarmuth1011061.jpgAt the Oct. 11 Democratic Rally at the UAW Union Hall on Fern Valley Road, party officials showed they’re fired up for the 11/7 election, and that they had a sense of humor.  There was video of a series of George W. Bush gaffes, video of the Barack Obama speech at Slugger Field (oddly, the only video available was from HillbillyReport.com), a clip of a political rant by MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann, the hilarious Al Gore skit from Saturday Night Live (showing what the U.S. would be like if he had been elected in 2000) and singing from a makeshift Democratic chorus.

Col. Mike Weaver, trying to unseat Ron Lewis in the 2nd District, loosened up with an off-color joke (PUNCH Line: I don’t know, what was her maiden name?). There was a video introduction of John Yarmuth by Ben Chandler. Yarmuth, in a brief speech, called Anne Northup’s comment on raising the minimum wage (“Everyone should have the opportunity to start at the bottom and work your way up.”) a “condescending bit of crap.”

But Jerry Abramson grabbed top billing, saying “it’s time for Democrats to win this fall” because “we’re on the correct side of the issues.”

Seeing Abramson at a Democratic pep rally was a bit of a surprise, and indicates that the “Mayor for Life” may be moving closer to the party’s heart.