Let’s take a look at the crosstabs for the latest SurveyUSA poll on the mayoral race, showing Hal Heiner leading Greg Fischer 51 to 44:
- 58% of men & 45% of women support Heiner, 38% of men & 50% of women support Fischer
- 56% of those ages 18-34 support Heiner, 35% support Fischer
- 49% of those ages 35-49 support Heiner, 47% support Fischer
- 50% of those ages 50-64 support Heiner, 47% support Fischer
- 52% of those aged 65+ support Heiner, 46% support Fischer
- Meaning Hal Heiner has 51% margins for those aged 18-49 and 50+, while Fischer only has 42% and 46% respectively
- 57% of whites support Heiner, 74% of blacks support Fischer
- 3% of whites are undecided while 7% of blacks are undecided
- 24% of Democrats support Heiner while only 11% of Republicans say they support Fischer. That’s the big shocker
- Heiner has a 91% favorable rating, 15% unfavorables, 59%
- 91% of tea partiers have a favorable view of Heiner, 81% have an unfavorable view of Fischer
- 61% of Heiner supporters say they’re more enthusiastic for the 2010 election than those prior, with 39% say less. 38% of Fischer supporters say they’re more enthusiastic for the 2010 election than those prior, with 52% saying they’re less enthusiastic. Big enthusiasm gap, despite the message the local Democratic Party is trying to push today.
- 51% of college grads support Heiner, 45% support Fischer
- 44% of those making less than $50,000 per year support Heiner, 51% of them support Fischer
Suppose it’s not much of a stretch for me to say these are troubling numbers for Greg Fischer.