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A Look At The SurveyUSA Mayoral Crosstabs

October 28th, 2010 by jake · 14 Comments

Let’s take a look at the crosstabs for the latest SurveyUSA poll on the mayoral race, showing Hal Heiner leading Greg Fischer 51 to 44:

  • 58% of men & 45% of women support Heiner, 38% of men & 50% of women support Fischer
  • 56% of those ages 18-34 support Heiner, 35% support Fischer
  • 49% of those ages 35-49 support Heiner, 47% support Fischer
  • 50% of those ages 50-64 support Heiner, 47% support Fischer
  • 52% of those aged 65+ support Heiner, 46% support Fischer
  • Meaning Hal Heiner has 51% margins for those aged 18-49 and 50+, while Fischer only has 42% and 46% respectively
  • 57% of whites support Heiner, 74% of blacks support Fischer
  • 3% of whites are undecided while 7% of blacks are undecided
  • 24% of Democrats support Heiner while only 11% of Republicans say they support Fischer. That’s the big shocker
  • Heiner has a 91% favorable rating, 15% unfavorables, 59%
  • 91% of tea partiers have a favorable view of Heiner, 81% have an unfavorable view of Fischer
  • 61% of Heiner supporters say they’re more enthusiastic for the 2010 election than those prior, with 39% say less. 38% of Fischer supporters say they’re more enthusiastic for the 2010 election than those prior, with 52% saying they’re less enthusiastic. Big enthusiasm gap, despite the message the local Democratic Party is trying to push today.
  • 51% of college grads support Heiner, 45% support Fischer
  • 44% of those making less than $50,000 per year support Heiner, 51% of them support Fischer

Suppose it’s not much of a stretch for me to say these are troubling numbers for Greg Fischer.

Tags: Greg Fischer · Mayor's Race 2010 · Polls · Republican Party

14 responses so far ↓

  • 1 ClearAndPresentThinking // Oct 28, 2010 at 12:05 pm

    You would have to be a lame duck voter to be undecided in an election like this!

  • 2 Mike // Oct 28, 2010 at 2:24 pm

    just like the Yarmuth/Lally poll, the sampling is still not consistent to traditional Jefferson County voting trends.
    How can any of these numbers be anywhere near accurate when they can’t even get the right sample %?

  • 3 Steve Magruder // Oct 28, 2010 at 2:42 pm

    “24% of Democrats support Heiner while only 11% of Republicans say they support Fischer. That’s the big shocker.”

    Given the 2-to-1 party registration that the Democrats enjoy, this means Heiner is getting roughly a 4-to-1 crossover advantage. Impressive.

  • 4 jake // Oct 28, 2010 at 2:58 pm

    Mike: This sample is way more accurate than recent SUSA numbers.

  • 5 Angela // Oct 28, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    I believe a significant portion of the crossover among Dems/libs is because of the bridges issue and among educated people concerned about the school system. Believe it or not, there are progressives against busing.

  • 6 East Market Resident // Oct 28, 2010 at 5:37 pm

    The bridge issue transcends all. A downtown bridge would severely damage our city for a century or more.

    As for busing, we have done it long enough. In any event, K-6 should not ever be bussed if at all possible. Maybe test scores would go up if the children were allowed to get proper sleep.

  • 7 GtownReader // Oct 28, 2010 at 8:36 pm

    I’m a “crossover Dem” because I want a thorough housecleaning of major Metro departments and their inbred heads, a thorough audit, and thorough & transparent accountability. (Hope I get what I vote for!)

  • 8 JTT // Oct 28, 2010 at 8:38 pm

    I’m with East. You simply cannot take a minimum of two hours a day out of a kid’s life and expect that they are going to be able to get adequate sleep/play/family time – there are just so many hours in a day. There is simply no proof in favor of bussing doing anything worthwhile at all. This is NOT a racial issue, it is a common sense issue. Our public schools are dramatically failing. Remember the adage, insanity is doing the same thing over and over the same way, and expecting a different result. Continuing bussing is simply insane.

    Trying to build a downtown bridge would royally screw up downtown for a generation, no way around it. Build the 265 link, force truck traffic to go around, and we’ll unlikely to even begin to need a new bridge downtown. That’s just common sense. By the time we get a bridge built, though, we’re likely to have moved into different transportation methods anyway.

  • 9 James // Oct 28, 2010 at 8:44 pm

    I have been saying all along that hal Heiner can’t be trusted — and the CJ has busted him. Why did he lie about his first wife? What does he have to hide? What else isn’t he telling people about?

  • 10 Picture This // Oct 28, 2010 at 9:27 pm

    Dear James,

    I can only assume that you are affiliated with the Fischer campaign, because your post that the C-J “busted” Hal Heiner reeks of desperation. The C-J did no such thing. Hal did not lie about his first wife. Please, point me to the article that says Hal lied about his first wife. He was not asked about his first wife, and he did not think it was appropriate to bring up. I can just imagine the C-J staff and the Fischer campaign staff at a frenzied meeting this morning, trying to come up with something, anything, to salvage the train wreck. And that article is what they came up with. Hilarious. Change is coming to Louisville, James, no matter how much crap you try to sling out in the next four days.

  • 11 jake // Oct 28, 2010 at 9:31 pm

    James is either Will Carle or Chris Poynter. And they should both be ashamed for pushing that bullshit story.

    The woman is fucking dead.

    New low for Arnold Garson who ordered that hit piece. New fucking low.

  • 12 James // Oct 28, 2010 at 9:49 pm

    I wish I was will carle or chris Poynter —they make much more money than I do in my government job

  • 13 Stunoland // Oct 28, 2010 at 10:37 pm

    The issue is not another downtown bridge but instead the terrible redesign of spaghetti junction/Kennedy interchange and the funding plan for this project. It is possible to build another bridge downtown without making our city unmarketable to the world. The current downtown ORBP fails on so many levels (financialy, aestheticly, & environmentaly) that it is the biggest urban planning mistake of the 21st century. post downtown ORBP Louisville will be locked into terribly designed mid-20th century style infrastructure defining the city’s image until at least the year 2120. That is the main reason that so many progressives are crossing over to the Heiner camp, they understand that Louisville will have no chance of competing in the 21st century if the city’s leadership makes this catastrophic mistake.

  • 14 futureman // Oct 28, 2010 at 10:40 pm

    Nate Silver has a post on robopolling firms and their house effects: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/robopolls-significantly-more-favorable-to-republicans-than-traditional-surveys/

    Assuming this is correct then the spread in the mayoral poll may be overstated. Tuesday night will certainly be a nailbiter.

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