Everyone is just cold foaming at the mouth about the latest mayoral poll from SurveyUSA. The newest data give Greg Fischer a 48% to 42% lead over Hal Heiner – up from 47% to 45% three weeks prior. And A Kentucky Newspaper, along with the Fischer campaign, is spinning this as tremendous momentum for the Democrat.
But here’s reality: if weighting of Democrats and Republicans hadn’t been adjusted by SurveyUSA, Heiner would probably be in the lead 46% to 44%. In the poll three weeks ago, turnout was predicted at 51% Democrats and 40% Republicans. The latest poll predicts turnout will be 57% Democrats and 34% Republicans. Quite a difference that can’t be ignored. Even WHAS11 failed to mention the turnout prediction change (I didn’t realize it at the time, as crosstabs hadn’t yet been released.)
The newspaper’s assertion that a change in partisanship weighting by the pollster is “momentum” is incompetent journalism at best and an intentional misrepresentation at worst.
The real momentum seems to lie with Heiner. He’s gained among Democrats and has taken a ten-point swing among Independents during the past three weeks.
(Heiner’s still gonna lose because he’s becoming increasingly afraid of the press and his campaign staff are dead set on allowing ignorance to prevail.)