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Yarmuth Releases Polling Data: He’s Ahead

July 22nd, 2010 by jake · 18 Comments

U.S. Congressman John Yarmuth’s re-election campaign just released its latest polling data.

The poll, conducted by Cooper & Secrest from June 21 to June 23 of 556 likely voters, says this:

  • John Yarmuth 58%
  • Todd Lally 32%
  • Undecided 10%

Margin of error is 4.4%

Additionally, 67% of those supporting Yarmuth are “strongly committed” to him while only 50% of Lally’s supporters consider themselves to be strongly committed.

Tags: Congress · John Yarmuth · Polls · Republican Party

18 responses so far ↓

  • 1 C M // Jul 22, 2010 at 2:17 pm

    Oh really? Why doenst Yarmouth release all the details of his polling sample? I bet I know why….If he thinks he’s anywhere close to 60 PERCENT, let him PROVE IT…

  • 2 ChristopherM // Jul 22, 2010 at 4:04 pm

    I would be shocked if he weren’t near 60 percent. Why these teabaggers don’t get that most of Louisville really likes Yarmuth is beyond me. If you want some Republican or DINO jackass, I suggest you move to one of the five backwards districts.

  • 3 MarkH // Jul 22, 2010 at 4:59 pm

    haha, wow. those are some numbers. game over. lally should go back to his day job – mouth breathing

  • 4 C M // Jul 22, 2010 at 6:02 pm

    Yarmuth: no bridge, no budget, no jobs……some record.

  • 5 Bruce Maples // Jul 22, 2010 at 8:03 pm

    “Strongly committed to him” — yep, that pretty much sums up my support for John Yarmuth. As far as I’m concerned, he’s got the job as long as he wants it.

  • 6 Steve Magruder // Jul 22, 2010 at 10:05 pm

    I’m with Bruce.

    The reality re: the bridges is that Yarmuth, much like Northup, is doing token things in favor of the seeming prevailing community mood. The community is actually very split about the bridges project, and this is why you don’t see any 3rd district Congress person in a rage about it. They don’t want to lose votes from the ORBP lovers or ORBP critics.

    At any rate, once the community is going in a solid direction, Yarmuth will be there. No question in my mind.

  • 7 Marko // Jul 23, 2010 at 12:25 am

    Hey, Jake. Did you ever find out who the outfit was that did that goofy “poll” for Lally a couple of weeks ago showing him neck and neck with Yarmuth?

  • 8 JT // Jul 23, 2010 at 8:49 am

    There is no way these poll results are accurate. Do I believe Lally is neck and neck with JY? Probably not. But I would bet its a lot closer than Yarmuth would like. My guess is right now Todd is 8-10 points behind which isn’t bad this early in the game. I believe when the 2 start debating the issues you’re going to see a battle. If and at this point its a big if Yarmuth wins re-election, he’ll do so by just a point or 2. Regardless of what either candidate says I think a lot of people of both sides of the isle will be shocked at just how close this race will be.

  • 9 Marc Gordon // Jul 23, 2010 at 9:15 am

    You do realize that Cooper & Secrest is a long standing democratic push poll? They could get the majority of voters to agree that this years KY Derby winner had three legs.

    The poll that Yarmuth should care about is that 63% percent of Kentuckians disapprove with Nancy Pelosi and 58% percent disapprove of Obama’s performance (both Rasmussen and PPP poll). These #’s are climbing each month. Rasmussen was dead on accurate in the Trey Greyson/Rand Paul poll as well and Jack Conway/Dan Mongiardo poll.

    Neither Rasmussen, Fox News, PPP, or Gallup have any polling data on Yarmuth. Until a respected INDEPENDENT poll releases numbers, I take both Lally’s and Yarmuth’s results with a grain of salt.

  • 10 jake // Jul 23, 2010 at 9:36 am

    Push poll? Hardly.

    Democratic? 100%.

    I think SurveyUSA will have Yarmuth up at least 10 points.

  • 11 Mark Stanton // Jul 23, 2010 at 1:33 pm

    I’m with both Bruce and Steve. Whatever level of support Lally has is not going to increase once they start debating issues. Lally already has his idealogical supporters and Yarmuth is very good at pointing out the holes and inaccuracies of the Republican/tea party talking points.

  • 12 Steve Magruder // Jul 23, 2010 at 2:11 pm

    Marc, I wasn’t aware that Kentuckians outside of the 3rd district counted for anything in this race, or am I missing something?

  • 13 Jim L // Jul 24, 2010 at 8:47 am

    Last I checked Steve, the 3rd District was in Kentucky.

  • 14 Steve Magruder // Jul 24, 2010 at 9:34 am

    Jim, you miss the point entirely.

    A poll of all Kentucky citizens doesn’t prove anything for the 3rd district.

    The 3rd district is of a different political makeup than the rest of the state. It is decidedly much more liberal.

  • 15 Larry West // Jul 24, 2010 at 10:48 pm

    Why didn’t the poll include Ed Martin? And why was this poll just released now when it was done a month ago?
    It would be nice, as the first poster stated, if the breakdown of the poll (how many D’s, R’s, I’s, etc., were surveyed) were available.
    I believe that Fischer’s and Conway’s lousy campaigning will affect Yarmuth’s results (though maybe not enough for him to lose).

  • 16 jake // Jul 25, 2010 at 10:09 am

    Maybe because you’re the only person who knows who Ed Martin is?

    If he had been included, Lally’s total would likely be smaller.

  • 17 ChristopherM // Jul 25, 2010 at 5:50 pm

    There are some folks on here who need to get out of Fairdale every now and again because clearly they have zero clue how most of this city leans in politics. Lally has about as much of a chance against Yarmuth as my dog does.

  • 18 ReginaP // Aug 2, 2010 at 6:06 pm

    Mr Mcgruder, independent national polling firms such as Gallup and Rasmussen conduct district polls by said district only….. perhaps you should actually read up on the polling process before commenting.

    Personally I think this race will be rather close, and am waiting for an independent firm to conduct a survey. My gut and Yarmuth’s voting record tell me that it will be closer than the one just released for ky6.

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